Steve Green puts Hillary in the White House in 2008 in two easy steps:

So my advice to the Republican Party is this. Do whatever you can, and quickly, to pass some kind of sane immigration reform that Democrats and Independents can all live with. If you don’t, then you’re in trouble. History doesn’t actually ever repeat itself, except when it does. Assuming a Secure Borders guy did no better than Ross Perot in 1992, he could easily tip the entire Southwest, and bits of the South, over to the Democrats. That’s a recipe for defeat.

My advice to the Democrats is this: Obstruct in Congress a very little, and do bunches of nothing a whole lot. Then sit back and watch as the Republicans splinter over security issues.