Michael M. Rosen writes "Don't Call it a Comeback (Yet)" for Governor Schwarzenegger--but his poll numbers, and that of his initiatives on the ballot in November are rising fast:

A Survey USA poll taken in the beginning of October found all of the governor's initiatives favored by wide margins, some by more than 20 points. Other polls have confirmed these findings.

Schwarzenegger's internal polling showed more than 60% support for the initiatives as recently as mid-September, even as his own personal approval remained mired in the mid-30's. Since then, he formally announced that he would seek reelection in 2006, perhaps persuading voters that he's in this for the long haul.

How has he generated those numbers? See if this strategy rings a bell:

Just a few months ago, conventional wisdom had all but written Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's eulogy, complete with all the shopworn Terminator clichés fit to print.

The "Governator's" approval ratings were in the high 30's. The Democrats in the Assembly and Senate had stymied his reform agenda at almost every turn. His attempt to bypass the California Legislature and take his case directly to the people was in jeopardy as several of his initiatives were floundering. As little as 28% of Californians approved of the special election he called (California's fourth statewide election in as many years).

Worst of all, according to a Field Poll, positive opinion of Schwarzenegger hovered perilously close to the level of his ousted predecessor, Gray Davis.

Much of this bad news was attributed to a vehement and intensely personal advertising campaign against the governor on the part of the various unions, who had much to lose if the initiatives succeeded. Beginning in late spring, the airwaves have been blanketed with "everyday" teachers, workers, and parents lambasting the governor -- depicted in dull and grainy footage that would embarrass the National Enquirer's editorial staff -- for his betrayal of schools and families.

Rather than respond in kind, the governor and his supporters held their tongues (and checkbooks) until about six weeks before the November election. This rope-a-dope aimed to lure Arnold's opponents into a state of complacency; the trap would be sprung in late September when the governor, we were told, would finally go on the offensive.

if that all sounds familiar, it certainly should: that was President Bush's exact re-election strategy. As I wrote early in September of last year, during the week of the Republican National Convention:

Since January, Bush endured a year where he was beaten up over 30 year old phony AWOL charges. (And before the Swift Boat Vets raised the stakes, you can't help but think they surfaced partially with the hopes of making Kerry look better in comparison, and shut down debate about his service record.) The first lady had disingenuously headlined articles written about her thoughts on gay marriage. That the gay marriage issue was brought up so forcefully in both Massachusetts and in San Francisco simultaneously (where it's illegal, but that didn't stop a newly elected mayor) in this election year was probably not a coincidence.

Then the partisan 9/11 Commission. Then Fahrenheit 9/11, and the endless anti-Bush tomes at bookstores, and endless attacks first by Howard Dean, then Al Gore, and then Senator Kerry.

The silence from the White House was brutal to endure for those of us who wanted to see the president fight back. But it paid off this week.

And in November of course, which is why Governor Schwarzenegger is employing a similar strategy, with--so far at least--equally similar results.

Update: Instalanche! Welcome, fellow readers of the Professor.