Early last month, we wrote that Swift Boat Vets had Kerry in a mobius loop:

So if these guys are lying about what Kerry did in Vietnam, then Kerry himself had to have lied to Meet the Press and in his speech as a Naval Reserve officer to the Senate on April 22, 1971.

Otherwise, Kerry's own testimony tacitly backs them up. So either Kerry's a self-professed war criminal, or someone who lied to puff up his own radical chic credentials in the early 1970s and smear his fellow soldiers. In either case, what makes him think either of those make him electable?

The convention may not give Bush a lead he can hold. The lead may switch back and forth, as in 2000. But what can be ruled out is a scenario in which the incumbent trails the challenger through the fall. That is now less likely than a sustained Bush lead. And Kerry finds himself in a trap. If he talks about domestic issues, he leaves the charges about his war record and his antiwar record unanswered — and disappoints his base. If he responds to those charges, he is stuck in the past — and more negative than the president acceptance speech was. Thursday night's rally was a sign that Kerry is being led by his followers. Their panic is overwrought, but it could be self-fulfilling. This is what it means to be in a trap, a trap that got tighter Thursday night.

Update: More here.